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Abstract

In standard New Keynesian models, future interest rate cuts have larger effects than current cuts—this is called the forward guidance puzzle. We argue that the forward guidance puzzle is not a puzzle. We show the puzzle arises from an implausibly large monetary regime change, exceeding anything in U.S. history since the Great Depression. By calibrating our model to four regime changes during the U.S. Great Depression, disciplined by changes in long-term bond yields, we find the model’s predictions are broadly consistent with historical data.

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Citation

Eggertsson, G. B., & Schüle, F. D. (2024). The Forward Guidance Puzzle is not a Puzzle (No. w33180). National Bureau of Economic Research.

@techreport{NBERw33180,
 title = "The Forward Guidance Puzzle is not a Puzzle",
 author = "Eggertsson, Gauti B and Schüle, Finn D",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "33180",
 year = "2024",
 month = "November",
 doi = {10.3386/w33180},
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w33180",
 abstract = {In standard New Keynesian models, future interest rate cuts have larger effects than current cuts—this is called the forward guidance puzzle. We argue that the forward guidance puzzle is not a puzzle. We show the puzzle arises from an implausibly large monetary regime change, exceeding anything in U.S. history since the Great Depression. By calibrating our model to four regime changes during the U.S. Great Depression, disciplined by changes in long-term bond yields, we find the model’s predictions are broadly consistent with historical data.},
}